Yet, their method calledSTORM crucially relies on the knowledge of thesmoothness, aswellaboundonthegradient norms.

Applying Claim 3, we can find a finite setF for which γk RF implies that eachΦkI,j has the property (12).

MoredetailsintheappendixD. (b) Did you specify all the training details (e.g., data splits, hyperparameters, how they werechosen)? Moredetailsintheappendix D. (c) Did you report error bars (e.g., with respect to the random seed after running experiments multiple times)?

Understanding the movement behaviours of individuals and the way they react to the external world is a key component of any problem that involves the modelling of human dynamics at a physical level. In particular, it is crucial to capture the influence that the presence of an individual can have on the others. Important examples of applications include crowd simulation and emergency management, where the simulation of the mass of people passes through the simulation of the individuals, taking into consideration the others as part of the general context. While existing solutions basically start from some preconceived behavioural model, in this work we propose an approach that starts directly from the data, adopting a data mining perspective. Our method searches the mobility events in the data that might be possible evidences of mutual interactions between individuals, and on top of them looks for complex, persistent patterns and time evolving configurations of events. The study of these patterns can provide new insights on the mechanics of mobility interactions between individuals, which can potentially help in improving existing simulation models. We instantiate the general methodology on two real case studies, one on cars and one on pedestrians, and a full experimental evaluation is performed, both in terms of performances, parameter sensitivity and interpretation of sample results.

Probabilistic programming makes it easy to represent a probabilistic model as a program. Building an individual model, however, is only one step of probabilistic modeling. The broader challenge of probabilistic modeling is in understanding and navigating spaces of alternative models. There is currently no good way to represent these spaces of alternative models, despite their central role. We present an extension of probabilistic programming that lets each program represent a network of interrelated probabilistic models. We give a formal semantics for these multi-model probabilistic programs, a collection of efficient algorithms for network-of-model operations, and an example implementation built on top of the popular probabilistic programming language Stan. This network-of-models representation opens many doors, including search and automation in model-space, tracking and communication of model development, and explicit modeler degrees of freedom to mitigate issues like p-hacking. We demonstrate automatic model search and model development tracking using our Stan implementation, and we propose many more possible applications.

Abstract-- We investigate the problem of dynamic portfolio optimization in continuous-time, finite-horizon setting for a portfolio of two stocks and one risk-free asset. The stocks follow the Cointelation model recently introduced [7]. The proposed optimization methods are twofold. In what we call an Stochastic Differential Equation approach, we compute the optimal weights using mean-variance criterion and power utility maximization. We show that dynamically switching between these two optimal strategies by introducing a triggering function can further improve the portfolio returns. We contrast this with the machine learning clustering methodology inspired by the band-wise Gaussian mixture model [9]. The first benefit of the machine learning over the Stochastic Differential Equation approach is that we were able to achieve the same results though a simpler channel. The second advantage is a flexibility to regime change.

We study the sample complexity of semi-supervised learning (SSL) and introduce new assumptions based on the mismatch between a mixture model learned from unlabeled data and the true mixture model induced by the (unknown) class conditional distributions. Under these assumptions, we establish an $\Omega(K\log K)$ labeled sample complexity bound without imposing parametric assumptions, where $K$ is the number of classes. Our results suggest that even in nonparametric settings it is possible to learn a near-optimal classifier using only a few labeled samples. Unlike previous theoretical work which focuses on binary classification, we consider general multiclass classification ($K>2$), which requires solving a difficult permutation learning problem. This permutation defines a classifier whose classification error is controlled by the Wasserstein distance between mixing measures, and we provide finite-sample results characterizing the behaviour of the excess risk of this classifier. Finally, we describe three algorithms for computing these estimators based on a connection to bipartite graph matching, and perform experiments to illustrate the superiority of the MLE over the majority vote estimator.

We propose a novel and flexible rank-breaking-then-composite-marginal-likelihood (RBCML) framework for learning random utility models (RUMs), which include the Plackett-Luce model. We characterize conditions for the objective function of RBCML to be strictly log-concave by proving that strict log-concavity is preserved under convolution and marginalization. We characterize necessary and sufficient conditions for RBCML to satisfy consistency and asymptotic normality. Experiments on synthetic data show that RBCML for Gaussian RUMs achieves better statistical efficiency and computational efficiency than the state-of-the-art algorithm and our RBCML for the Plackett-Luce model provides flexible tradeoffs between running time and statistical efficiency.

We investigate the power of voting among diverse, randomized software agents. With teams of computer Go agents in mind, we develop a novel theoretical model of two-stage noisy voting that builds on recent work in machine learning. This model allows us to reason about a collection of agents with different biases (determined by the first-stage noise models), which, furthermore, apply randomized algorithms to evaluate alternatives and produce votes (captured by the second-stage noise models). We analytically demonstrate that a uniform team, consisting of multiple instances of any single agent, must make a significant number of mistakes, whereas a diverse team converges to perfection as the number of agents grows. Our experiments, which pit teams of computer Go agents against strong agents, provide evidence for the effectiveness of voting when agents are diverse.

Pattern recognition is a central topic in Learning Theory with numerous applications such as voice and text recognition, image analysis, computer diagnosis. The statistical set-up in classification is the following: we are given an i.i.d. training set $(X_{1},Y_{1}),... (X_{n},Y_{n})$ where $X_{i}$ represents a feature and $Y_{i}\in \{0,1\}$ is a label attached to that feature. The underlying joint distribution of $(X,Y)$ is unknown, but we can learn about it from the training set and we aim at devising low error classifiers $f:X\to Y$ used to predict the label of new incoming features. Here we solve a quantum analogue of this problem, namely the classification of two arbitrary unknown qubit states. Given a number of `training' copies from each of the states, we would like to `learn' about them by performing a measurement on the training set. The outcome is then used to design mesurements for the classification of future systems with unknown labels. We find the asymptotically optimal classification strategy and show that typically, it performs strictly better than a plug-in strategy based on state estimation. The figure of merit is the excess risk which is the difference between the probability of error and the probability of error of the optimal measurement when the states are known, that is the Helstrom measurement. We show that the excess risk has rate $n^{-1}$ and compute the exact constant of the rate.